The Ham Hock of Liberty

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

The Big Day

So apparently there's some sort of election in Connecticut today. You guys hear about that....?

Being the 3l1t3 armchair quarterback that I am, I have a pretty good track record of predicting election outcomes (by using the very sophisticated strategy of looking at the most recent poll, then adding 5 points for the evil candidate), but I have no idea how this one is going to turn out. Ned Lamont should have the more motivated group of voters - many of them are going to be righteously pissed off - and I can't understand how Joe would inspire anyone, outside of wingnuts and lobbyists whose jobs get much harder if he loses. However, the bottom line is still that Holy Joe is still an 18-year incumbent Senator with a massive cash advantage, who has not been caught in bed with a live boy or dead girl. Senators in that position simply do not lose primary elections. There is too much of a network in place of folks who can influence elections that have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, and/or returning favors for their old political friends.

Not surprisingly, Joe is staying shameless up until the bitter end, taking a page straight from the Rove playbook and insisting that if you don't for him, you're an appeasenik hippie fool. Kevin Drum points out what's wrong with this nonsense; namely, we're now at the point where -any- questioning of the value or justification for any given war is automatically "weak on security." Don't think we should nuke Canada tomorrow? Weak on security. Don't think we should spend 2 trillion dollars to train giant angry apes to patrol the border with Mexico? Weak on security. And so on. AmericaBlog also has a fairly righteous rant about Joe's latest emission.

So, back to the point. The election. May as well go on the record with a prediction....I guess Ned Lamont will win, by about 54-46.


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