Prognosticatin' is Hard Work
Earlier in the week when I went way out on a limb to predict that waiting another Friedman Unit to gauge Iraq's progress wouldn't tell us a damn thing we didn't already know, I remembered that I had made a bunch of predictions for 2006, at the beginning of the year:
1. DeLay acquitted in laundering trial.
Well, this one probably won't happen in 2006, as it's unlikely the trial will be over before the end of the year.
2. DeLay indicted by feds wrt Abramoff.
No federal indictments yet, and none seem forthcoming, which is surprising.
3. Rove indicted by Fitz's grand jury.
This one also looks wrong, but should have been right. It's somehow Jason Leopold's fault. That bastard tricked me.
4. Congress holds wiretap hearings.
Well, this one turned out accurate, sort of. See #5.
5. Wiretap hearings end up going nowhere; GOP + Liberman decide legality is "iffy," impeachment would be extreme.
Pretty much.
6. W approval ratings languish around 40.
Guess it depends how much leeway "around" gives you, but yep.
7. Democrats pick up House and Senate seats, but don't take majority in either house.
Have to wait for November for this one, obviously, but I stick by it. The electoral map is just too loaded against Democratic candidates to overcome the gulf in the legislature.
8. Time names RedState.org Blog of the Year.
Too soon! And L'Affaire Domenech (remember him?) kinda makes this impossible. But Time is crazy and unpredictable! They think outside the box!
9. Nothing much changes in Iraq; sectarian violence continues but US troop presence staves off inevitable all-out civil war.
More or less right. Although a good argument can be made that the inevitable civil war is already "all-out."
10. Some sharks bite some guys.
This was just snark about our serious media. But the sharks don't disappoint.
11. Some white women go missing for a few days.
More media snark. Fortunately, there haven't been too many of these stories dominating entire weeks worth of news cycles. But we still have another 5 months....
12. A nasty hurricane hits Florida. Local Democratic city comptroller blamed for inadequate response.
Not yet! Hurricane season is just getting started though. And W is back on vacation in Crawford, so another major American city is going to be feeling the pain soon.
13. Massachusetts does not fall into ocean or go up in flames.
Despite the continued legality of gay marriage, the earth itself has not swallowed the state down to hell.
14. Limbaugh charged by FL prosecutor.
Technically incorrect! He escaped by cutting a deal for deferred prosecution.
15. Santorum booted out on ass by Casey.
This will still happen in November. I can't think of a way to make a wisecrack about Ricky's fetus in a jar, though.
16. Paul Hackett loses senate race 51-49.
Paul dropped out, but his replacement Sherrod Brown will probably lose 51-49.
17. Deficit around $350 billion.
Optimistic projections of $300 billion notwithstanding, I think it'll end up being closer to 350 than 300. At least it's lower than the $420+ we had in 2005...
18. Katherine Harris drops out of senate race; poses for Playboy.
This hasn't happened yet, amazingly enough. Of course, I had been operating on the assumption that Katherine Harris was not literally insane. This was a naive assumption. Had she been at least a little bit sane, she would have dropped out by now.
19. Tony Blair forced out of office by overseas torture scandals.
Blair will still be gone soon, although he isn't out yet. England's complicity with torture and rendition will only be one factor of many, so I guess this is more wrong than right.
19. Playboy goes bankrupt.
Not yet! They were bailed out by Harris' dementia.
20. John Gibson and O'Reilly say a bunch of stupid shit, nobody pays attention to them, until they gin up the War on Xmas again, the day after Thanksgiving.
Spot on, so far. I can't wait for the annual Xmas wars again, where we all get to worry about the subtext of how we wish each other well during December.
Hmmm. Well, at least I'm still better at it than Joe Klein.
1. DeLay acquitted in laundering trial.
Well, this one probably won't happen in 2006, as it's unlikely the trial will be over before the end of the year.
2. DeLay indicted by feds wrt Abramoff.
No federal indictments yet, and none seem forthcoming, which is surprising.
3. Rove indicted by Fitz's grand jury.
This one also looks wrong, but should have been right. It's somehow Jason Leopold's fault. That bastard tricked me.
4. Congress holds wiretap hearings.
Well, this one turned out accurate, sort of. See #5.
5. Wiretap hearings end up going nowhere; GOP + Liberman decide legality is "iffy," impeachment would be extreme.
Pretty much.
6. W approval ratings languish around 40.
Guess it depends how much leeway "around" gives you, but yep.
7. Democrats pick up House and Senate seats, but don't take majority in either house.
Have to wait for November for this one, obviously, but I stick by it. The electoral map is just too loaded against Democratic candidates to overcome the gulf in the legislature.
8. Time names RedState.org Blog of the Year.
Too soon! And L'Affaire Domenech (remember him?) kinda makes this impossible. But Time is crazy and unpredictable! They think outside the box!
9. Nothing much changes in Iraq; sectarian violence continues but US troop presence staves off inevitable all-out civil war.
More or less right. Although a good argument can be made that the inevitable civil war is already "all-out."
10. Some sharks bite some guys.
This was just snark about our serious media. But the sharks don't disappoint.
11. Some white women go missing for a few days.
More media snark. Fortunately, there haven't been too many of these stories dominating entire weeks worth of news cycles. But we still have another 5 months....
12. A nasty hurricane hits Florida. Local Democratic city comptroller blamed for inadequate response.
Not yet! Hurricane season is just getting started though. And W is back on vacation in Crawford, so another major American city is going to be feeling the pain soon.
13. Massachusetts does not fall into ocean or go up in flames.
Despite the continued legality of gay marriage, the earth itself has not swallowed the state down to hell.
14. Limbaugh charged by FL prosecutor.
Technically incorrect! He escaped by cutting a deal for deferred prosecution.
15. Santorum booted out on ass by Casey.
This will still happen in November. I can't think of a way to make a wisecrack about Ricky's fetus in a jar, though.
16. Paul Hackett loses senate race 51-49.
Paul dropped out, but his replacement Sherrod Brown will probably lose 51-49.
17. Deficit around $350 billion.
Optimistic projections of $300 billion notwithstanding, I think it'll end up being closer to 350 than 300. At least it's lower than the $420+ we had in 2005...
18. Katherine Harris drops out of senate race; poses for Playboy.
This hasn't happened yet, amazingly enough. Of course, I had been operating on the assumption that Katherine Harris was not literally insane. This was a naive assumption. Had she been at least a little bit sane, she would have dropped out by now.
19. Tony Blair forced out of office by overseas torture scandals.
Blair will still be gone soon, although he isn't out yet. England's complicity with torture and rendition will only be one factor of many, so I guess this is more wrong than right.
19. Playboy goes bankrupt.
Not yet! They were bailed out by Harris' dementia.
20. John Gibson and O'Reilly say a bunch of stupid shit, nobody pays attention to them, until they gin up the War on Xmas again, the day after Thanksgiving.
Spot on, so far. I can't wait for the annual Xmas wars again, where we all get to worry about the subtext of how we wish each other well during December.
Hmmm. Well, at least I'm still better at it than Joe Klein.
posted by Nim at
5:23 PM
1 Comments:
Paul dropped out, but his replacement Sherrod Brown will probably lose 51-49.
After leading 53-47 prior to one last Republican stronghold being counted...
By
Eli, at 7:02 PM
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