Handicapping '08
Yeah, yeah, it's way too early to be talking about '08, and the candidates will probably be people who aren't even on the radar yet. But it's still fun. Here's how I see it:
GOP
John McCain and George Allen have the best chance of getting the nomination, and they're probably about equal. McCain doesn't have much charisma, but he's the media darling because of his ostensible centrism/bipartisanship/principle. Of course, he's not really a centrist, and this photo tells you pretty much all you need to know. But that's the narrative, and the media will stick to it. McCain and Giuliani are the two Republicans that would be the most palatable to Sally Soccer Mom, and both can tap into peoples' apparent need for the Daddy State to keep them safe from the scary brown people. Giuliani, however, is even less charismatic than McCain, even more socially centrist, and generally resembles a snake. So McCain will get the "moderate" support.
Which leaves George Allen to pick up the mouth-breathers that just loves them some W. He's cut straight from the W mold, being a whiter-than-white golden boy, who can please both corporate America and the "values" Republicans. He also has the advantage of not being particularly bright. Or, to put it more succinctly, he's dumb as a post. Which is now a political asset, as it makes you seem less frightening. Think, "Non-Threatening-Boys Magazine" for the government.
I'm guessing it'll be Allen. The upside: both McCain and Allen are senators, who have a history of doing miserably in preznitial bids.
Democrat
Sadly enough, Hillary is the most likely choice. She's totally unelectable, but nobody else seems even close in terms of early support. She could have a fight on her hands from Al Gore, Mark Warner, or Wesley Clark, but none of them could really stop the Democrats from tilting at windmills yet again, and nominating Hillary.
I'd be happy with almost any combination of Clark, Barbara Boxer, Barack Obama, Brian Schweitzer or Gore on the ticket, but it ain't gonna happen. Russell Feingold would be an excellent President, but he has even less chance of being elected than Hillary.
If '08 ends up being Hillary versus McCain, the GOP wins.
If it's Hillary versus Allen...it will be closer, but the GOP will still win.
GOP
John McCain and George Allen have the best chance of getting the nomination, and they're probably about equal. McCain doesn't have much charisma, but he's the media darling because of his ostensible centrism/bipartisanship/principle. Of course, he's not really a centrist, and this photo tells you pretty much all you need to know. But that's the narrative, and the media will stick to it. McCain and Giuliani are the two Republicans that would be the most palatable to Sally Soccer Mom, and both can tap into peoples' apparent need for the Daddy State to keep them safe from the scary brown people. Giuliani, however, is even less charismatic than McCain, even more socially centrist, and generally resembles a snake. So McCain will get the "moderate" support.
Which leaves George Allen to pick up the mouth-breathers that just loves them some W. He's cut straight from the W mold, being a whiter-than-white golden boy, who can please both corporate America and the "values" Republicans. He also has the advantage of not being particularly bright. Or, to put it more succinctly, he's dumb as a post. Which is now a political asset, as it makes you seem less frightening. Think, "Non-Threatening-Boys Magazine" for the government.
I'm guessing it'll be Allen. The upside: both McCain and Allen are senators, who have a history of doing miserably in preznitial bids.
Democrat
Sadly enough, Hillary is the most likely choice. She's totally unelectable, but nobody else seems even close in terms of early support. She could have a fight on her hands from Al Gore, Mark Warner, or Wesley Clark, but none of them could really stop the Democrats from tilting at windmills yet again, and nominating Hillary.
I'd be happy with almost any combination of Clark, Barbara Boxer, Barack Obama, Brian Schweitzer or Gore on the ticket, but it ain't gonna happen. Russell Feingold would be an excellent President, but he has even less chance of being elected than Hillary.
If '08 ends up being Hillary versus McCain, the GOP wins.
If it's Hillary versus Allen...it will be closer, but the GOP will still win.
posted by Nim at
10:31 AM
6 Comments:
Hillary doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the general election. Democrats had better elect Wesley Clark if they want a Democtatic president.
By
Anonymous, at 11:51 AM
If Hillary could talk to the public without sounding like a politician delivering a calculated speech, she might have a chance. But she can't. The words are measured, the rhetoric is not passionate.
It's not an easy trick, but we have a few that can do it. Schweitzer is particularly good at it, so is Clark. Mark Warner and Barack Obama can do it. Gore can do it, but he was carefully coached not to in '00. John Kerry can't do it. A large part of the reason he lost, imo.
By
Nim, at 12:05 PM
I agree with you 100% about Kerry. Right from the get-go I doubted his ability to beat Bush. That's why I supported and still support Clark. The Dem candidate is of course going to have to reach the red state voters. We all know what the average red state voter likes. Clark is a Southerner, and a career military guy. He's a straight-shooter, and although he can speak in simple terms, he's dropdead smart. And I think his national security credentials will appeal to everyone given the current state of the union. Plus, he was a teacher of economics at West Point.
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